In the future (30 years later) also India has chance to become super-power, so situation will be much more complicated. In this case allies will be only Israel and some of NATO members (probably not all). Worst case for USA is scenario n.4, when Russia and China are together and can have possible support of the Muslim world and Africa. Russia (for all next scenarios: direct conflict- also on the land of main powers, indirect conflict - for example in Middle East). There are 5 main possible scenarios including main powers: There are 3 main powers, which can be core of the WW3 - USA, Russia and China. Only then you can correctly answer the question. Is this war nuclear and are strategic ICBM included?.
He doesn’t think this is close, “but I’m pretty sure Russia will begin blackmailing with nuclear arms and I'm pretty sure it will be ready to use it. It will do this, he says, “with chemical weapons, and maybe the most dangerous weapons: tactical nukes”.
He says Russia may move to “blackmail” the West into making Ukraine stand down. Its potential is much bigger, at least theoretically.” “It already has 300,000 ready to mobilise.
“What can Russia do that it hasn't yet done? It can announce the whole mobilisation for its citizens,” he says. While Pavel Slunkin, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), is hesitant to predict the future, he believes Putin could call for a mass mobilisation of all Russian citizens of fighting age in the next 12 months. JUST IN: Royal Family went against age-old mantra to show support for Ukraine At that point, a new division of Ukraine emerges.” He continues: “Perhaps China will start supplying the weapons, at which point Ukraine may find itself having to settle for an agreement with Russia which sees large parts of its territory, including Crimea, essentially given to Russia. “At that point, Western unity begins to break because people will start to say, When is this war going to end?”ĭr Melvin thinks Russia may well begin to throw everything behind the war, “throwing in as many people as it takes, paying whatever economic costs”. The pessimistic one? “That the Ukrainians probably still make some progress but not enough to stop the war dragging on into the second half of the year,” he says. If President Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces manage this and put themselves in a position to threaten Crimea, “at that point, there may be the opportunity to have a peace conference, which would be a reset of European security relations”.īy this point, Dr Melvin says: “President Putin would be under a lot of pressure at that moment possibly step down or be overthrown.”īut this is the “optimistic scenario”. However, he says he is “optimistic that the Ukrainians can make substantial territorial progress”. It will be hard for Ukraine to reclaim all of the territories it has lost in the next 12 months, says Dr Neil Melvin, Director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Ukraine regains territory and a peace conference is held
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